General Chair MSS'97:
James G. Anderson, Purdue University, U.S.A.
Program Chair MSS'97:
Meyer Katzper, U.S. Food and Drug Administration, U.S.A.
8:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m.
Visit to Biosphere 2 and Kitt Peak National Observatory
9:00 a.m. - 12:00 p.m., 2:00 p.m. - 5:00 p.m.
Introduction to VRML 2.0
Dave Nadeau, San Diego Supercomputer Center, U.S.A.
9:00 a.m. - 10:00 a.m.
Multiconference Overall Keynote Address:
Chairperson:
François E. Cellier, U.S.A
When We Don't Know the Costs or the Benefits: Adaptive Strategies for Abating Climate Change. Michael Schlesinger, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, U.S.A.
10:00 a.m. __________________Coffee Break________________
10:30 a.m. - 12:00 p.m.
Technical Session #1: Health Services Research I
Chairperson: Beatriz González López-Valcarcel, Spain
Adverse Drug Events in a Teaching Hospital: A Dynamic Model
James G. Anderson, Stephen J. Jay, Marilyn M. Anderson, Thaddeus J. Hunt, U.S.A.
Discrete Event Simulation of Human Errors in Cancer Treatment
Rick Archer, Susan Archer, John Keller, Paul M. Lewis, U.S.A.
Simulation of a Pulmonary Clinic
Mary Lacroix, Joan Ricard, Mark J. Perry, U.S.A.
12:00 p.m. _____________Conference Luncheon________________
1:30 p.m. - 3:00 p.m.
Technical Session #2: Health Services Research II
Chairperson: William E. Feinberg, U.S.A.
Employing Simulation to Optimize the Number of Operating Rooms in Hospitals
Jar-Yuan Pai, Chin-Un Chang, Taiwan
Frederick E. Petry, Peter J. Fos, U.S.A.
Modeling and Simulation in Management Decision Making
L. Moreno, R. M. Aguilar, C. A. Martín, J. D. Piñeiro,
J. L. Sánchez, V. I. Jiménez, M. A. González,
Beatriz González López-Valcarcel, S. Rodríguez, Spain
A Simulation Model of the Availability of Physicians and Its Dynamics in the
Next 20 Years
Beatriz González López-Valcarcel, Patricia Barber Perez, Spain
3:00 p.m. __________________Coffee Break________________
3:30 p.m. - 5:00 p.m.
Technical Session #3: Health Services Research III
Chairperson: Lael Gatewood, U.S.A.
Simulation of Seahawk Telemedicine Project
Lori W. Meyer, W. David Kelton, Susan N. Sherman, Kerry E. Meyer, U.S.A.
Medical Conferencing for Surgical Simulation Over High-Speed Networks
Soo-Mi Choi, Joo-Young Park, Sang-Ah Nam, Hellen Homg, Hyun-Sun Yu,
Jee-Young Im, Jongwon Kim, Myoung-Hee Kim, South Korea
FIRESCAP: Simulation of Evacuation Response to a Fire Alarm
William E. Feinberg, Norris R. Johnson, U.S.A.
5:30 p.m. - 8:00 p.m.
Visit to Engineering Centers at Arizona State University
8:30 a.m. - 10:00 a.m.
Technical Session #4: Modeling Epidemics
Chairperson: Carla Rossi, Italy
Predicting the Prevalence and Costs of HIV/AIDS: A Computer Simulation
James G. Anderson, Marilyn M. Anderson, U.S.A.
Compartmental Models for Health Care to Chronic Patients: An Application to
Health Care to Patients With AIDS
Carla Rossi, Giuseppe Schinaia, Italy
A Stochastic Model of the Pathogenesis of HIV at the Cellular Level and Some
Monte Carlo Studies
Wai-Yuan Tan, Hulin Wu, U.S.A.
10:00 a.m. __________________Coffee Break________________
10:30 a.m. - 12:00 p.m.
Technical Session #5: Physiological Processes
Chairperson: Marcelo Guarini, Chile
Nonlinear Modelling of the Ventricular Activation Function From the Arterial
Pressure Waveform
Marcelo Guarini, Jorge Urzua, Aldo Cipriano, Waldo Gonzalez, Chile
Computer Analysis of the Univentricular Heart Circulation
Sam Haydar, U.S.A.
Simulation of Insulin Secretion: From Physiological Knowledge to Clinical
Applications
Giovanni Pacini, Italy
Envelope Coding in the Auditory Brainstem
Michael Reed, Jacob J. Blum, U.S.A.
12:00 p.m. ______________________Lunch__________________
1:30 p.m. - 3:00 p.m.
Technical Session #6: Pharmacometric Methodologies and Applications I
Chairperson: Meyer Katzper, U.S.A.
Application of a Neural Network to the Prediction of Steady State Drug
Concentration in a System Which is Noisy and Whose Clearance is Time Varying
Ronald R. Burnette, U.S.A.
Overview of the Results of the ECVAM Workshop on the Use of Biokinetics and In
Vitro Methods in Toxicological Risk Evaluation
Chris T. A. Evelo, Bas J. Blaauboer, Kees Groen, Arendina M. Hissink,
Joost de Jongh, Johannes J. M. van de Sandt, The Netherlands
Martin K. Bayliss, J. Brian Houston, United Kingdom
José V. Castell, Spain
John M. Frazier, Gregory L. Kedderis, U.S.A.
Michael Gülden, Germany
André Guillouzo, France
Gunnar Johanson, Sweden
Christoph A. Reinhardt, Switzerland
Giovanna Semino, Italy
Physiological Modeling of Fentanyl Pharmacokinetics in Humans: A Comparative
Study of Two Approaches
Derek A. Linkens, M. Mahfouf, United Kingdom
Pain Alleviation Modeling by Response Levels
Meyer Katzper, U.S.A.
3:00 p.m. __________________Coffee Break________________
3:30 p.m. - 5:00 p.m.
Technical Session #7: Pharmacometric Methodologies and Applications II
Chairperson: Edward Gallaher, U.S.A.
Data and Visual Fitting of Simulations
Meyer Katzper, U.S.A.
Time Course and Radius of Diffusion After Microinjection of Drugs Into the
Mouse Brain
Edward Gallaher, Frank E. Lotrich, U.S.A.
A PBPK Model to Investigate the Fate of 2,4-Toluenediamine
Hoan-My Do Luu, Joseph C. Hutter, U.S.A.
Impact of Variations in Input and Disposition Functions on the CMAX Criterion
in Single and Multiple Dosing Bioequivalence Studies
Tsang-Bin Tzeng, Sumithra Gopal, U.S.A.
5:30 a.m. - 10:00 p.m.
You are invited to join us for an authentic, mouth-watering, belly-filling cowboy cookout, followed by the dynamic entertainers of the Red River Opry in a spectacular tribute to American music. Cost is $40 per person.
9:00 a.m. - 10:00 a.m.
Technical Session #8: Medical Applications I
Chairperson: N. David Charkes, U.S.A.
Exponential Decomposition and Computer Simulation of Colorectal Cancer
Survival Data
N. David Charkes, Lynn Ries, John Macdonald, U.S.A.
Computer Simulation as a Tool for Treatment of Obesity: The Fat Balance
Approach to Weight Control
James L. Hargrove, Laurie Weissinger, Diane K. Hartle, U.S.A.
Simulation of Urea Kinetics and Fluid Balance During Hemodialysis
Karl Thomaseth, Marco Ingegno, Italy
10:00 a.m. __________________Coffee Break________________
10:30 a.m. - 12:00 p.m.
Technical Session #9: Medical Applications II
Chairperson: James L. Hargrove, U.S.A.
Algorithms for Fast Estimation of CBF & CMRO in O-15 Dynamic PET:
A Simulation Study on Their Performances
Dino Ho, Dagan Feng, Australia
Kewei Chen, U.S.A.
Computer Simulation Techniques for Clinical Training in Ophthalmic
Photocoagulation
Juan Pablo Duclos, Sebastián Gil, Rodrigo Álvarez, Andres
Guesalaga, Chile
A Model-Based Qualitative Patient Monitoring and Control System
Ali-Reza Tanha, Germany
12:00 p.m. ______________________Lunch__________________
1:30 p.m. - 3:00 p.m.
Technical Session #10: Methodology and Software
Chairperson: Meyer Katzper, U.S.A.
Using Constrained Categorical Regression to Identify Structural Relationships
in Epidemiological Data
Richard M. Golden, Steven S. Henley, Harvey L. Bodine, Robert L. Dawes,
T. Michael Kashner, U.S.A.
Is Sensitivity Analysis More Fault Tolerant Than Point Prediction?
Daniel J. Berleant, Byron S. Liu, U.S.A.
Generalizing the Compartmental Approach of Stella to Systems Including Chemical
Reactions
Jacques LeFèvre, United Kingdom
A Model of the Cardiac Pump
Jacques LeFèvre, United Kingdom
3:00 p.m. __________________Coffee Break________________
3:30 p.m. - 5:00 p.m.
Panel Discussion: Modeling Techniques Using STELLA
Panel Members: